The times I have had to make that decision, it seemed to me that the persons who intended harm were flaming obvious. Also, part of a tiny minority.
There is a problem, however, in my logic if not in yours. My gut feeling that the danger outweighed my need is not something I could check later. I have run across these instances in two situations: when I was a child on the run within the U.S. and when I was an adult in a non-English speaking country and something went wrong. In either case, I was not in a position grab a newspaper and see if a traveler had been harmed…even if that would prove anything about my decision.
You cause me to remember my daughter getting stranded in Mexico with a plane ticket back but no money. Yes, strangers helped her and I only found out about the danger after it had passed. Yes, she’s a smart woman with very good instincts. But I felt like a bum when she said she did not want to call me in a panic from a U.S. consulate because that would make me think she was incompetent. She knew I would wire her money but did not want to ask.
If that situation had gone wrong, I would never have forgiven myself.